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Abstract Cross-ecosystem subsidies influence the structure and dynamics of recipient ecosystems and can be sensitive to disturbance. Primary production exported from marine to shoreline ecosystems is among the largest known cross-ecosystem subsidies. However, the spatial scales at which this important connection is manifested are largely unquantified. We used local and regional observations of nearshore kelp canopy biomass and beach kelp wrack inputs to evaluate the scales at which connectivity between kelp forests and beaches is maximized. Regardless of the spatial and temporal scales considered, connectivity was highly local (<10 km) and strongest in winter. Kelp canopy biomass was the primary driver of wrack subsidies, but recipient ecosystem attributes, particularly beach width and orientation, were also important. These drivers of connectivity highlight that disturbance to either ecosystem will have large implications for beach ecosystem productivity. Spatial connectivity can regulate recovery from disturbances such that ecosystem connections must be considered in conservation efforts. 

Abstract Kelp forests are one of the earth’s most productive ecosystems and are at great risk from climate change, yet little is known regarding their current conservation status and global future threats. Here, by combining a global remote sensing dataset of floating kelp forests with climate data and projections, we find that exposure to projected marine heatwaves will increase ~6 to ~16 times in the long term (2081–2100) compared to contemporary (2001–2020) exposure. While exposure will intensify across all regions, some southern hemisphere areas which have lower exposure to contemporary and projected marine heatwaves may provide climate refugia for floating kelp forests. Under these escalating threats, less than 3% of global floating kelp forests are currently within highly restrictive marine protected areas (MPAs), the most effective MPAs for protecting biodiversity. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to increase the global protection of floating kelp forests and set bolder climate adaptation goals. 

The use of multispectral geostationary satellites to study aquatic ecosystems improves the temporal frequency of observations and mitigates cloud obstruction, but no operational capability presently exists for the coastal and inland waters of the United States. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on the current iteration of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, termed the $R$Series (GOES-R), however, provides sub-hourly imagery and the opportunity to overcome this deficit and to leverage a large repository of existing GOES-R aquatic observations. The fulfillment of this opportunity is assessed herein using a spectrally simplified, two-channel aquatic algorithm consistent with ABI wave bands to estimate the diffuse attenuation coefficient for photosynthetically available radiation, $K_d\left(\mathrm{P}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{R}\right)$. First, anin situABI dataset was synthesized using a globally representative dataset of above- and in-water radiometric data products. Values of $K_d\left(\mathrm{P}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{R}\right)$were estimated by fitting the ratio of the shortest and longest visible wave bands from thein situABI dataset to coincident,in situ $K_d\left(\mathrm{P}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{R}\right)$data products. The algorithm was evaluated based on an iterative cross-validation analysis in which 80% of the dataset was randomly partitioned for fitting and the remaining 20% was used for validation. The iteration producing the median coefficient of determination ( $R^2$) value (0.88) resulted in a root mean square difference of $0.319{\mathrm{m}}^{-<\#comment/>1}$, or 8.5% of the range in the validation dataset. Second, coincident mid-day images of central and southern California from ABI and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were compared using Google Earth Engine (GEE). GEE default ABI reflectance values were adjusted based on a near infrared signal. Matchups between the ABI and MODIS imagery indicated similar spatial variability ( $R^2=0.60$) between ABI adjusted blue-to-red reflectance ratio values and MODIS default diffuse attenuation coefficient for spectral downward irradiance at 490 nm, $K_d\left(490\right)$, values. This work demonstrates that if an operational capability to provide ABI aquatic data products was realized, the spectral configuration of ABI would potentially support a sub-hourly, visible aquatic data product that is applicable to water-mass tracing and physical oceanography research.